Rethinking Intentional Walk Strategy in MLB: A Simulation Study

This project explores inefficiencies in MLB intentional walk strategy and proposes a more dynamic approach to decision making through simulation and run value analysis, with an emphasis on providing a conclusion that is simple in its interpretability yet conducive to a strategy that can be used in games. Through Monte Carlo simulation, I compare the expected outcomes of pitching to a hitter versus issuing an intentional walk across different counts, base-out states, and hitter/pitcher quality levels. The goal is to move beyond gut feel and isolate when, if ever, the numbers actually support giving a hitter first base for free, as opposed to a more catastrophic outcome.